Comments on: Disney: CEOs and the arcane art of predicting contemporary culture http://cultureby.com/2005/02/disney_ceos_and.html This Blog Sits At the Intersection of Anthropology and Economics Wed, 08 Feb 2012 08:43:22 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: steve http://cultureby.com/2005/02/disney_ceos_and.html/comment-page-1#comment-6731 steve Mon, 14 Feb 2005 13:03:05 +0000 http://localhost/wp_culture/?p=1016#comment-6731 This is a fascinating topic. There are some serious reflexivity problems here. Any articulable, systematic method for picking winners should earn zero economic return in equilibrium. Once it's known to all, the value ON THE MARGIN of such a method drops to the competitive level, because the prices of winners will rise in advance and/or a glut of "winners" will be produced. This is one of the most powerful results of modern economics. If a firm really had a systematically superior method of picking TV shows, it should NEVER publish that method (I don't think such a thing would be patentable). Of course, once the method is out, anyone not using it would be at a disadvantage, so the method would have inframarginal value. For a really well-written discussion of this concept and its application to everything from magic to literary criticism, I strongly recommend D. N. McCloskey's If You're So Smart. This is a fascinating topic. There are some serious reflexivity problems here. Any articulable, systematic method for picking winners should earn zero economic return in equilibrium. Once it’s known to all, the value ON THE MARGIN of such a method drops to the competitive level, because the prices of winners will rise in advance and/or a glut of “winners” will be produced. This is one of the most powerful results of modern economics. If a firm really had a systematically superior method of picking TV shows, it should NEVER publish that method (I don’t think such a thing would be patentable). Of course, once the method is out, anyone not using it would be at a disadvantage, so the method would have inframarginal value.

For a really well-written discussion of this concept and its application to everything from magic to literary criticism, I strongly recommend D. N. McCloskey’s If You’re So Smart.

]]> By: Tom Guarriello http://cultureby.com/2005/02/disney_ceos_and.html/comment-page-1#comment-6730 Tom Guarriello Sun, 13 Feb 2005 22:30:01 +0000 http://localhost/wp_culture/?p=1016#comment-6730 You've hit upon an incredibly rich vein here, Grant. To gain a deep appreciation for the complexities of "intuitive decision-making," and methods for systematically developing it, I'd recommend not Malcolm Gladwell's tepid, <i>Blink</i>, but rather, Gary Klein's very impressive works, <i>Sources of Power</i> and <i>The Power of Intuition</i>. You’ve hit upon an incredibly rich vein here, Grant.

To gain a deep appreciation for the complexities of “intuitive decision-making,” and methods for systematically developing it, I’d recommend not Malcolm Gladwell’s tepid, Blink, but rather, Gary Klein’s very impressive works, Sources of Power and The Power of Intuition.

]]> By: dave http://cultureby.com/2005/02/disney_ceos_and.html/comment-page-1#comment-6729 dave Sun, 13 Feb 2005 14:43:58 +0000 http://localhost/wp_culture/?p=1016#comment-6729 Great post. When the day comes that analysts expect and commonly get this kind of documentation from corporate execs, we will soon be expecting similar from the President, the Supreme Court, and even from tenured professors. Isn't it interesting to see the scream put up by most lawyers when former Supreme Court clerks tell us even a bit of the process involved? It does seem amazing that so much important decision making is largely intuitive and yet we seldom do give the "intuitive arts" much formal training or formal scrutiny. What would your class look like? Do you have a worksheet to reccomend? Don't some top salesmen, artists, or investors do journal their intuitive notions extensively. Do you have a reading assignment for us? Great post. When the day comes that analysts expect and commonly get this kind of documentation from corporate execs, we will soon be expecting similar from the President, the Supreme Court, and even from tenured professors.

Isn’t it interesting to see the scream put up by most lawyers when former Supreme Court clerks tell us even a bit of the process involved?

It does seem amazing that so much important decision making is largely intuitive and yet we seldom do give the “intuitive arts” much formal training or formal scrutiny. What would your class look like? Do you have a worksheet to reccomend?

Don’t some top salesmen, artists, or investors do journal their intuitive notions extensively. Do you have a reading assignment for us?

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