Archive for May, 2006

Cruise_ship_1

If Russell Davies will forgive me, I have a new assignment for his Account Planning School of the Web. 

The topic: the cruise ship industry. 

The question: what the hell happened? 

The task: break down the problem, build up the industry.

Your assignment (should you accept it):

save this industry with a cunning piece of meaning management.  First the analysis.  Then the creative.  For God’s sake, Tom, do something!

__________________________________________________________________

It’s no fair asking others to do what you will not do yourself.  So here’s my 5 cents worth, just to get things started.  I expect submissions to be vastly better than what follows. 

1) Pirates!

The real world seemed to become a theater for cruise ship misadventure.  Terrorists killed an Israeli citizen on one cruise ship.  A mysterious disease broke out on another.  Staff members were accused of sexual impropriety on a third.  And for one Greenwich man featured on 60 Minutes (or something), a honeymoon cruise ended in death.   

All of this is from memory, and that is as it should be.  The idea "cruise ship," once idyllic and peaceful, is now crowded with violent images and vague fears.  Something tells me a cruise ship was actually even boarded by pirates.  I may be thinking of The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou but the point is "Cruise ship" is now a semantic space that invites "boarding" by malevolent creatures and unhappy imaginings of every kind.

2) A suburb at sea

Something about the idea of cruise ship is suggests that even if things go well, the possibility of captivity is still quite likely. I mean, what if you get stuck at a table with real drones.  What if there is no TV, and all the films are Gidget.  What if you really feel like getting away from it all?  Where are you going to go?  It’s as if cruise ship stayed still and the ocean moved beneath it.  Somehow I think of the cruise ship as a suburb at sea, predictable and tedious.  Sure, you can get off in port.  What, and go shopping?  Cruise ships feel like a world with the dynamism removed.  (And perhaps this is why we are now so prepared to imagine bad things.  Perhaps we trying to put the dynamism back in.  We merely over corrected.) 

3) Resort culture

There was a time, the 1950s, say, when this culture worshipped lots of things that were bad for you: sugar, sun, fat, salt, alcohol, smoking and Wayne Newton.  People went to Vegas and other resorts to relax.  But it’s a wonder they made it home alive.  Some part of me imagines (falsely, I’m sure) that cruise ships just happen to be the place that resort culture went to die.  I imagine that some where out there on the ocean are little worlds of smorgasbord, free drinks, lounge acts, gambling, sun burns and frightening quantities of cholesterol.  The old Vegas.  In technocolor.  Out there on the high seas.  Vegas before Circe and Steve.  Vegas without the drugs and prostitution to give the place the tang of criminality and lawlessness.  Vegas with no mobsters to add drama and snappy dressing. 

4) the anti-Cuba

Someone once persuaded me that the future was going to look like Cuba before the revolution, that it would become a place of unimaginable contrast, cruelty, and extravagance.  I don’t that this is true, but by this standard, cruise ships, as opportunities for new experience and engagement, feel a little like toys for the bathtub, tiny, plastic ships that can negotiate the  miniature, well enamelled sea, but no other.  Adventure or excitement?  Forget it.   By this reckoning, what the cruise ship does, effectively, is to lock the traveller away from the world. 

Ok, that’s enough.  Feel free to discard, rewrite, or render intelligible, as you want.  Now for the assignment.

1) do your own (better) analysis.  What are the systematic properties of cruise ships before the fall.  (Or am I kidding myself?)  What happened to bring the industry low?  What were the deeper cultural trends that drove this descent?  What were the more immediate causes?  What was happening in the industry itself?  (I am not sure how you find this part out, but, hey, if you want to get a degree from Russell Davies, you will learn to be resourceful.  Make it up if you have to.) 

2) give us a strategic plan

What needs to happen here?  Map the strategic space.  Lots of fields.  Lots of arrows.  Lots of powerpointing.  How does the cruise ship industry need to do to restore itself?

3) give us an action plan

What do we do now, in the next 12 months, 2 years, and 5 years.

Good luck and God speed.

Categories : Marketing Watch
Comments (14)

Google_ad_1

Microsoft is getting serious about on-line advertising.  So the titans mean to tangle.  That’s Google in the blue spandex.  Microsoft in the red.  Stay well clear of the mat, ladies and gentlemen!  This is going to get ugly. 

I think Microsoft could win this one.  Clearly, they want to.  Joanne Bradford, corporate VP of global sales and marketing at Microsoft, says that the Internet ad biz, now worth $13 billion, will grow to $100 billion in 10 years. 

It won’t be easy.  At the moment, Microsoft is playing catch up.  Their ad revenue grew only 7 % last quarter while Google’s grew 80%.  (Yahoo grew 38%).

The problem is the MSN search engine.   It gets only 13% of our search inquiries while Google gets 45%.  (Yahoo gets 28%.)  By sewing up our searches (and, for some of us, our email), Google effectively owns the "billboards" on which internet ads appear.   

Microsoft means to address this with by creating an "adCenter" designed to give better demographic targeting and the opportunity to put ads not just on searches, but free online software services, gaming and cell phones. 

But the anthropological observation is clear.  Microsoft could win because they actually know something about advertising.  They have commissioned good advertising.  They have managed good advertising. 

Google has demonstrated a naiveté about advertising.  Their success came to them without advertising.  So they have no real world experience of what it is and why it matters.  Plus, I think they made the classic error of the quantitatively gifted.  They have looked at advertising and asked "how hard can this be?" 

They are about to find out.  And if they lose a $100 billion contest to Microsoft, naiveté (nee arrogance) in these matters will finally have a price tag.   

Here’s the swing assumption.  I am betting that advertising will undergo a rapid evolution in the next few years.  It will get richer, more complex, more persuasive.  It will evolve to capture the opportunities made available by the net and the competition that $100 billion will bring to the market.

Right now, a Google ad is not much better than a newspaper classified.  It is a line or two.  No images, no music, no mystery, no power.  A 30 second spot on television can move us to tears or laughter.  A classified ad catchs our attention only if we happen to be searching for the 86 Chevy it has on offer.  Classified ads are the penny dreadfuls of the advertising world.  Advertising will begin to evolve away from this model at speed.

Classified are merely, thinly, informational.  (Real advertising helps construct the product by supplying deeper information, rules of use, and meanings mined from emotion, cognition and culture. ) Google’s approach is pallid.  Proof?  When was the last time you clicked on a Google ad?  Our eyes have learned to edit-out Google advertising.  All my search activity and email contains Google ads, and I have clicked on Google advertising perhaps twice in the last 3 months.  How about you?

Online advertising is going to evolve ferociously in the next ten years.   We will move to the incorporation of movement, sounds, color, image, transmedia, cocreation, narrative, the whole flaming ball of wax.  Eventually, the internet will sustain a species of advertising that makes the present 30 second spot on television look like child’s play.  Ilya Vedrashko, my colleague at MIT’s C3 is particularly good on the 3D future of the internet, and when this is installed, Google’s undernourishing notion of advertising will be laid bare, and Microsoft will sweep this contest. 

Of course, Google could take a crash course.  They could throw themselves at the feet of the great agencies and supplant naivete with sophistication.  They could hire Russell Davies, Ilya Vedrashko, or some other leading light.  They could investigate what advertising is when it isn’t a classified.  This could happen.  Sure, it could. 

Categories : Advertising Watch
Comments (18)
May
05

Ethnography at the MSI meetings

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Msi_1

The Marketing Science Institute meetings on ethnography are
now over. 

A couple of things impressed.

1. The ethnography for corporate purposes is around 20 years old, and already is said to be indispensable for five of the corporations at the conference: Kodak, Intel, P&G, Miller Brewing and Philips.  Wow.  Not bad for a method that was widely sneered at in the early years. 

2. The stand-off between qualitative and quantitative methods may still have hot spots in the academic world, but this contest is now over in the corporate world.  The corporation is method agnostic.  Now that ethnography has been blessed by both A.G. Lafley and the Marketing Science Institute, it a method in good standing, and no longer the dubious stranger who just keeps "barging in."

3. In the early days of corporate ethnography, the insights were sufficiently robust that the method could be forgiven some of its eccentricities and eccentrics.  That’s now over.  New standards are coming.  Some practices and practitioners will have to go.  Qualifications, rigor, discipline, quality control, these are the new watch words.  Unless they are really good (and some are), "self trained" ethnographers should find another field.  This time around, who knows, they might like to pose as surgeons, pilots, or possibly NASA engineers.  But it’s time to go. 

Eventually, the business schools and the design schools will make themselves useful here in the supply of training systems.  But as it stands, almost all the b-school academics who care to teach this stuff were in the room [John Sherry (Notre Dame), Eric Arnould, Linda Price (Arizona), Lisa Penaloza (Colorado), Craig Thompson (Wisconsin) and Rob Kozinets (York and MIT)] and this is not a good sign.  Still, the MSI conference happened largely at the inspiration of John Deighton, a professor at the Harvard Business School and the editor of the Journal of Consumer Research.  He is as impressive a patron (god father?) as the field could hope for.  Perhaps b-schools and design schools will now rise to the occasion. 

4. Ethnography  reels in lots and lots of very messy data.  We can extract value from these data if and only if we have formidable powers of pattern recognition.  This means it is useful to be an anthropologist as well as an ethnographer.  That is to say, it helps if you know something about the formal properties of social life and cultural matters.

But you don’t have to be an anthropologist.  (In fact, a lot of anthropologists couldn’t find their way out of an ethnographic study with a flashlight and a GPS PDA.)  Nor do you need to be a sociologist or hold an advanced degree.  But you have to have spent some time thinking in a formal way about culture and your culture, preferably in the company of the likes of Durkheim, Goffman, Warner, Levi-Stauss, to name a few.  You may choose your own leading lights, your own "pattern suppliers," but you have to have some.  It’s not enough to have "read a book about proxemics" in college. 

Pattern recognition depends upon having many, formal "patterns" at hand.  These patterns do not do the work of analysis.  Our conclusions will always depart from them.   But they give us templates with which to work, and when you are deep in the 2nd hour of your 6th interview of a project and the data are piling up all around you, interpretive options are most welcome.

5. Ethnography has always been a way to make good on marketing’s wish to be "consumer centric."  Ken Anderson of Intel showed how effectively it can help this corporation answer the big question from Theodore Levitt: "what business are you in?"  In Intel’s case, ethnography helped demonstrate that the one of the new objectives was not so much the "digital home" as "digital homemaking."  This small difference in phrase makes for a vast difference in product development and marketing.  It’s the difference between a product development literalism ("let’s wire the home") and capturing the concerns of the consumer and the value for which they will surrender value. 

6.  But Ethnography is also useful because it makes the corporation more responsive.  Everyone know lives in a world that bucks and weaves with novelty.  Michael Kallenberger of Miller Brewing showed as some of the ferocious innovation taking place in the bar.  Beer consumption is falling in part because women now influence men’s consumption choices in ways they never did before.  This is a huge change, both recent and quite sudden.   That beer consumption numbers was falling, this was a simple quantitative matter.  Why these numbers were falling, this came from the ethnographic side.  What to do about it?  This too will in part spring from the ethnographic work, as Miller Brewing thinks about way of repositioning beer to speak to the "bar cultures"  now emerging. 

7.  And that is, as Dominique M. Hanssens, the Executive director of MSI, pointed out, one of the most important contributions ethnography can make.  It turns out to be a good lantern to take with us when we go looking for innovation.   Innovation is not usually a really great idea we find fully formed sitting neglected in a corner of the consumer culture.  ("Velcro, of course!") Innovation often depends on a conceptual cunning, that sudden insight that if we look at this problem or product or person in a slightly new light, everything changes.  (Not a digital home, but digital home making.)  Innovation comes, that is to say, to those who are capable of changing conceptual frame quickly, often and well.  Because it is so good at provoking and then managing messiness, ethnography delivers value here.  Indeed, it sometimes seems to me almost as if purpose build for critical parts of the innovation process.

8.  One of the real challenges that remains stands at the border between outward research and inward process.  Some corporate cultures have a hard time bringing the ethnographic insight fully in-house.  Mike Lotti (Kodak) Ken Anderson (Intel), Michael Kallenberger (Miller Brewing) all showed that the corporations has now drawn so much value from ethnographic work that the way is paved.  Resistance is down.  Transmission is fast.  Insights are lasting.  Lisa Phelan and Alejandra Arreaga (Philips) outlined a "persona" technique that helps preserve the insight through the product develop process. 

All and all, then, a good conference.  It marks an interesting development in the maturation of the field.  This is no longer the "little method that could," no longer the methodological outlier, no longer the party crasher everyone wishes would just go home.  Ethnography is giving up its amateur status, its adolescent excesses, its most flagrant abuses.  It will make the corporation more responsive to consumers, more responsive to the dynamism of contemporary market places, and better at innovation. 

If there is a larger ethnographic/anthropological point to make here, it is that the corporation is a superbly adaptive animal.  I know how difficult it was for the corporation to "get" ethnography.  Here was a method that seemed to break all the rules of order and discipline that marketing had with some difficulty imposed upon itself.  Ethnography was anomalous and a little nervous making.  (I know.  When I was doing ethnography in the 80s, people shouted at me for daring to do so.)  But it didn’t take long before the corporation took on even this.  Unlike the academic world from which ethnography largely sprang, the corporate world, always liquid and restless, always opportunity and advantage seeking, said, "oh we don’t want to do this but we will."  Capitalism was responsive enough to take up this odd little duck of a method, and having done so, is more responsive still. 

Acknowledgments

Thanks to Marnie Clippenger, John Deighton, Dominique Hanssens, Donna Peck, Ross Rizley, Earl Taylor and the rest of the MSI team for a great conference. 

Categories : Ethnography
Comments (18)

American_idolI am at Marketing Science Institute meetings on ethnography in Toronto.  If the wireless connections here at the 4 Seasons weren’t almost completely random, I might have posted something on the conference by this time.

Arg!  There is lots going on here and I look forward to sharing it with you when time and connections allow.  In the meantime, some thoughts on the TV show that holds viewers, most of them, in the palm of its hand.  American Idol, what an enterprise!

But from a marketing point of view, we need to break it down.  (I think that’s a James Brown phrase, but let us appropriate it for our marketing purposes.  From a branding point of view, it is clear that Coca-Cola is riding a rocket. They signed up early and someone at TCCC (the Coca-Cola Company) now looks like a frickin genius.  (And if someone saw what was going to happen here before it happened here, they are a frickin genius.)

So what does Coke have?  If we think about this from a celebrity endorsement point of view, it gets interesting.  On the one hand, we could say that …

I interrupt this blog to report that at 8:57 in the Studio Cafe here in the 4 Season’s hotel in Toronto, a group of very large people passed my table and one of them was Al Gore.  Al Gore!  This is celebrity sighting and a small indication of the lengths to which This Blog Sits At will go to serve the interests of its constituency.  Everywhere you want to be.  Or wouldn’t mind being.  Or wouldn’t mind being as long as someone else was picking up the tab.  Or wouldn’t mind being as long as someone else was picking up the tag, AND House  or Bones or… for that matter, American Idol, wasn’t on.  Hey, don’t be like that.  This is a great man.  Or at least a really large one.  Hey!

Sorry, on the one hand, we could say that American Idol is the ultimate just-in-time experiment.  Coke gets to make a connection with celebrities at the very moment of their minting, just as they are "coming to market."  No brand can hope to be more current than this.  On the other hand, Coke must make itself a party to a brutal winnowing process as a result of which some of the nation’s sweethearts are eliminated.  This can’t be good.

I think the branding sweet spot for Coke should be that moment when there are, say, 8 contestants in place.  Coke has helped mint the latest celebrities, present, as it were, at the moment of creation.  As the number dwindle however, Coke is actually party to the elimination of favorites and the destruction of dreams.  This is not the place any brand every wants to be.

This is a tractable marketing problem.  Coke can grow and shrink its presense on screen, according to the moment.  There is meaning management to be undertaken here.  Is TCCC thinking this way.  Or are they just hoping for a maximum of exposure whatever the context/contest in question.  I fear the latter.  Hey, maybe they should be running for office. 

Categories : Marketing Watch
Comments (7)
May
03

The problem of partial ethnography

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Jill_nokia_iii

Ethnography is much used in corporate circles.  As a matter of fact, I’m headed to Toronto to participate in the Marketing Science Institute’s "Business Insights from consumer culture."  It will be jammed with ethnographers and marketers interested in ethnography.  Here’s a sneak preview of part of my presentation.

This interest in ethnography is being driven chiefly by 4 things:

1) the simple recognition that the focus group is no longer the preeminent methodological tool for qualitative inquiry.

2) the CEO of P&G, A.G. Lafley has smiled on ethnography and in marketing circles this is pretty close to a Papal blessing.

3) ethnography is moving through its life cycle.  It is no longer the new kid on the block, and its time to get serious about what it is, how it works, and how it can be managed for corporate purposes.

4) there are lots of bad practitioners now operating, and it is time for the corporation to begin to separate the sheep from the goats.

If ethnography has an obvious advantage, it is that it disintermediates the connection between the corporation and the consumer.  The ethnographer goes into the life of the consumer, sitting in kitchens and living rooms, to listen and observe.  This is good.  Ideally, it means that the corporation can see how the product and the brand manifests itself in home, in use, in life.  The famous and most obvious example of the value of ethnography: a 20 minute video showing a consumer trying to open a package.  "Ah," says the corporation, "we have a design problem." 

This is fine as far as it goes, but some clients are now treating ethnography as if it were merely for disintermediation, only a way to collapse the distance between the corporation and the corporation.  In the partial view, the ethnographer becomes, in effect, the marketer’s surrogate, a way for the marketer to see into the life of the consumer, his or her eyes and ears in place.  The presumption here is that, with a little more time, the marketer would have gone himself (herself) and would have seen pretty much the same thing.  This might be someone struggling with a package they cannot open.  Who could miss this?  The ethnographer is merely a witness to something so obvious it would have been evident to anyone. 

This short changes the method and the corporation.  For the method is designed not just for observation but analysis.  In a mature methodological universe, the ethnographer returns not just with brute observations but with insights.  And this is called for because many of the things the corporation needs to know are not evident on the surface of the consumer’s life.  We have to see beneath the surface into the beliefs and assumptions, the patterns and the practices, that make this life practical and sensible.  No mere "eyes and ears" ethnographer can supply these deeper insights. 

The "eyes and ears" model of ethnography is, I think, one of the reasons that bad practitioners have flourished.  Many are too uneducated or dim witted to offer anything more than surface reports.  More pointedly, they are often too stupid to see the real analytic opportunity or competitive insight.  This means that the corporation is buying only half the method.  More pointedly, many ethnographers are selling half the insight.  Naive empiricism is fine if all we need to worry about is impenetrable packaging.  But when the marketing problem is more difficult, more nuanced, more interesting, this sort of thing will not do.  Certainly, no partial ethnographer is going to spot a BFI.  No partial ethnographer is going to discover a "blue ocean."  No partial ethnographer can hope to perform the higher order analysis that is the corporation’s due. 

Here is an ad from Nokia that helps make the point.  It’s for the Nokia 8801.  The tag is "It’s your life in there."  The ad is available on line (see the link below).  When you get to the website, you will have to select one of several images that are scrolling horizontally.  You want the one that shows a blond woman with the tag "new."  If you’ve got the time, please watch both ads.   The link is here.

Here’s a recap of the second ad, the one entitled "Jill and her Nokia."  Jill says,

"I met a guy last Saturday night and he asked for my phone number and, like, things were going well at the bar, so I give him my phone number and he puts me right into his phone and was like, hey, that’s ,that’s, that’s pretty quick and then he asked me if I wanted his number and I was like yeah do you want to put it down on a business card or something.  I mean I’m a lady!  Who thinks of jumping right into my phone.  I got to take this as a process.  If we call, if we have some sort of thing going."

[The ad shows the Nokia 8801 and the line:] Nokia: It’s your life in there

"It’s like my cell phone is precious, it’s precious territory."

Now this is a great ad in some ways.  It says the Nokia has gone well behind the boiler plate of its PR, which I found online and reproduce, very partially, here:

Nokia is dedicated to enhancing people’s lives and productivity by providing easy-to-use and secure products like mobiles phones and solutions for imaging, games, media,, mobile network operations and businesses.

…we aim to help people get connected and increase the level of enjoyment and productivity that results.

Using ethnography, Nokia has drilled down into some of the real uses of the phone, and especially the way the phone interacts with the consumer’s life.  The second ad shows us that this Nokia is not merely an "enhancement" of Jill’s life but something deeply personal, a way of marking the boundaries of her social life, a way of deciding whether someone is in or out.  And in the first ad, we see that the Nokia is actually a way to remove people from her life, as when Jill "deletes" her boyfriend. 

Now, I would be prepared to bet a substantial sum of money that this ad comes almost directly from the ethnographer’s note book.  Clearly, "Jill" is an actress.  Clearly, this ethnographic moment has been reshot.  Just as clearly, Nokia decided that they liked the insight of the research so well that they would turn the insight into the ad and reproduce the moment of illumination.  They even went so far as to preserve the original cheesy video work. 

I think this is a bad idea.  The first ad (Jill deleting an old boyfriend) is cringingly unpleasant to watch.  Especially "Jill’s" laugh at the very end which happens to catch the pain of this experience rather too vividly.  The phrase "overshare" is making the rounds of adolescent speech at the moment, and it seems particularly apt here.  This is research overshare.  I don’t really want to know about Jill’s anxieties.  Unlike a former president, I don’t want to feel her pain. 

Don’t get me wrong.  The underlying research, the insight that some ethnographer brought back from Jill’s bedroom, is a beauty.  As I say, it moves us beyond the  "we sell communications" model of the corporation.  But it is just an insight, and as such it is too personal, particular and painful too deliver a powerful branding message.  I am impressed that Nokia did their homework.  I am impressed that they hired an ethnographer to capture this insight but I don’t want disintermediated access to the research.  For marketing purposes, this should be the point of departure.  But it should not be our point of arrival.   

In sum, the world of corporate ethnography appears to be leaving an exuberant adolescence and entering what we hope will be a more solemn, deliberate, and useful adulthood.  It will, we hope, put the things of childhood behind it. See you at the conference, if you are going.  Watch this space for periodic reports, if you’re not. 

References

The quote above from Nolkia’s corporate brochure can be found here

 

Categories : Ethnography
Comments (11)

Smoots_ii

Anyone who wants to read the dynamism of our culture knows that numbers are essential. But we also know that some of the most useful numbers are hard to come by.   

I would like to propose we consider a new set of metrics.  Let’s call them “smoot metrics,” after the MIT student Oliver R. Smoot, Jr.   

Oliver was a freshman at MIT in 1958.  His fraternity brothers decided to use him as a way to measure the Harvard Bridge.  Rolling Oliver head over heals the length of the bridge, they determined the bridge was 364.4 smoots plus an ear (see below).  

The likeable thing about the smoot measurement system is that it is at once deadly earnest and entirely whimsical.  This makes it perfect for our purposes.

I was walking across the Harvard Bridge (pictured with appallingly healthy undergraduates) on Friday night with Henry Jenkins and Robert Kozinets (we were not running) when our conversation moved me to say I wished we had a smoot measurement for the creativity taking place in the world.  How many people engaged in how many creative endeavors in the creation of how many cultural artifacts…what would this number look like?  More to the point, why don’t we have one?

It is commonplace in media, culture, and marketing circles to remark upon how many people are now engaged in creative activities and how good their activities often are.  We have lots of ways of explaining this development. It marks the continuing democratization of an aristocratic privilege, the growing strength of what Bell called expressive individualism, the multiplication of venues and the decline in the costs of production, gatekeeper elites, and other "barriers toSmoots entry.”

By some reckoning, it was the rise of Punk that sounds the "all clear" signal.  Now anyone could, and everyone should, pick up a guitar and “have at it.”  It doesn’t matter how bad we are, the point is to get up on the stage and let rip. Rock stardom…not just for musicians anymore. This was the DIY (do it yourself) spirit now legitimized

What I don’t think anyone appreciated was how good this DIY stuff would become.  I think the general assumption was that we would live in a two-tier world, with a great no man’s land between the professionals on high and the amateurs below. 

Boy, were we wrong.  I was at a wedding some years ago in Canada when three brothers roasted the groom with quality material.  At PopTech a couple of years ago, the resident comedian Rocket Boy complained that all the speakers were doing pretty good material. 

Every time someone holds a contest inviting people to submit their own films or make their own ads, I think the judges are a little chastened that so much of the stuff should be so good.  They know that it is only accidents of biography that puts them on the panel and not in the crowd.  An awful lot of DIY work turns out to be "performance grade."  (It is precisely this rise in quality that makes the cocreation branding process vastly less risky and much more interesting.)

We live in a period of cultural efflorescence.  For cultural purposes, this is a Cambrian era.  It would be nice to have a number that helps us track this productivity.  Does it rise steadily?  Does it change with the decades and the state of popular culture?  Does it change with each generation?  We would need to measure print, video, music for a minimum.  YouTube would be a great place to start, with the very film festivals as a follow up.  It would be great to find out from Ed Cotton at Butler Shine how many submissions for Converse "make your own ad" competition there were. 

Then of course we need a big board on which to plot this and other stuff.  I mean, how else can we hope to keep track of our exceedingly dynamic culture?

Acknowledgments

With thanks for the photo of Harvard Bridge, here.

May
01

The mystery of soccer

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Soccer_graphic Soccer is not a professional sports Americans care about very much.  It does not rank in the top 20 sports (as pictured) and it actually comes in below equestrian jumping and tractor pulls. 

This is a mystery. 

After all, soccer has four passionate fan bases in the US:

1) immigrants arrived from soccer mad countries (South America, Africa, Europe, um, like, the whole world)

2) women under the age of 55 (thanks to the triumphs of Mia Hamm and company at the World Cup events in the late 1990s)

3) kids now participating in school and neighborhood programs that have embraced soccer because it is 3.1 inexpensive, 3.2 co-educational (if required), and 3.3 easy to play badly.   Are there a lot of these kids?  I believe there’s a reason we call their mothers "soccer moms." 

4) kids who have graduated from said programs.  Kids have been passing through these programs in big numbers for at least 20 years.  This means that the first cohort is now in its mid twenties and in possession of the disposal income to support a local club and a national league.

This is what a marketer would call an "installed base."  Millions of people have followed or played the game.  If only 20% become fans, it should be more or less easy to sustain a professional league play.  But this has been really hard to do.  Soccer has struggled.

But things are looking up. 

According to an article in BusinessWeek, the money is now in place with investors pouring $1 billion dollars into the league in the last two years.  Red Bull putting down $100 million to buy a New York franchise.  New stadiums are being created.  Ticket sales are up 20% this year with attendance approaching 20,000 a game. 

This is good news for fans of dynamism because soccer is a dynamic game in a way that football and baseball are distinctly not.  George Will once said of the former that it combined two of the worst aspects of American life: violence and committee meetings.  Baseball would be improved by either one.  Soccer is all about pattern recognition on the fly.  Says the striker, "if this is true, and this is true, and this is true, then this pass is called for.  No!  He moved."  One of the real pleasures of the game is watching patterns form and reform on the field as these two little universes reconfigure themselves in a spectacular display of "sense and respond" as Steve Haeckel would call it. 

But there is room for product development.  Specifically, something has to be done about the physics of the game.  There is too much time and too much space.  A 90 minute game is too long and so is the field.  Both tax players so heavily that dynamism is actually suppressed.  I am not suggesting dramatic reductions.  Otherwise, soccer would become merely basketball played with one’s feet.  But I think 60 minutes and a smaller field would bring the game alive nicely. 

Will this happen.  Absolutely not.  Soccer fans are religious zealots.  There will be no reformation.  I think this means that while soccer will climb from its present obscurity, it will never be ready for prime-time, and the present marketing opportunity will be wasted.  Too bad. 

References

For more on the ranking of sports, go here

For more on Steve Haeckel and his ideas, go here.

Holmes, Stanley.  2006.  A breakout year for soccer?  BusinessWeek.  May 1, 2006, p. 86.

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