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	<title>Comments on: Forecasting and trendwatching: when do politicians catch up?</title>
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	<description>This Blog Sits At the Intersection of Anthropology and Economics</description>
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		<title>By: Rob Fields</title>
		<link>http://cultureby.com/2008/02/forecasting-and.html/comment-page-1#comment-2066</link>
		<dc:creator>Rob Fields</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Feb 2008 00:08:16 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Bravo, Grant!
You know, I was wondering when you were going to weigh in on this fascinating political season.  More than anything, it seems that the campaign is exposing (for those who have eyes to see) an incredible cultural shift that we find ourselves in the midst of.  Have you been reading Frank Rich in the Times?  He is so eloquent in his analysis of the cultural shift, the moment, the Hillary is fighting and Barack seems to be winning.  Back in January, based on Kirk Johnson&#039;s NY Times article, I wrote the following post:
http://www.marketingpopculture.com/the_spark/2008/01/culture-evolves.html
The question is, of course, are marketers thinking about what this shift means, and how they&#039;ll fare when the dust settles?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bravo, Grant!</p>
<p>You know, I was wondering when you were going to weigh in on this fascinating political season.  More than anything, it seems that the campaign is exposing (for those who have eyes to see) an incredible cultural shift that we find ourselves in the midst of.  Have you been reading Frank Rich in the Times?  He is so eloquent in his analysis of the cultural shift, the moment, the Hillary is fighting and Barack seems to be winning.  Back in January, based on Kirk Johnson&#8217;s NY Times article, I wrote the following post:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.marketingpopculture.com/the_spark/2008/01/culture-evolves.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.marketingpopculture.com/the_spark/2008/01/culture-evolves.html</a></p>
<p>The question is, of course, are marketers thinking about what this shift means, and how they&#8217;ll fare when the dust settles?</p>
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		<title>By: John McCreery</title>
		<link>http://cultureby.com/2008/02/forecasting-and.html/comment-page-1#comment-2065</link>
		<dc:creator>John McCreery</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 23:56:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://localhost/wp_culture/?p=335#comment-2065</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s a highly relevant article in the February 08 Harvard Business Review. Description as follows:
&quot;When companies put seasoned managers in charge of important projects, they don&#039;t expect missed deadlines, budget overruns, and rampant defects. However, that&#039;s what researchers found when they tested hundreds of experienced project managers with computer games that simulated software development projects. The study, conducted by two professors from Insead and one from Naval Postgraduate School, strongly suggests that veterans in complex environments suffer a breakdown in the learning process. The research reveals three reasons for the breakdowns: Time lags between causes and effects make it difficult to see how they&#039;re connected; fallible estimates color the chain of decisions that determine a project&#039;s outcome; and a bias toward the initial goals prevents managers from setting revised, more appropriate, targets when project circumstances change. Sticking to an initial low budget goal after a project grew in scope, for instance, led subjects to ignore quality assurance, which led to soaring defect rates--and costs. Companies can take practical steps to fix the learning cycle. They can provide feedback that shows the relationships between important variables in the environment. Such feedback might reveal, say, the 20-day ramp-up that a new quality assurance team needs before becoming fully effective. Tools that apply formal models to calculate such things as the effect of turnover on team productivity also help. Setting goals for behavior, instead of targets for performance, is critical as well. Finally, firms can create project &quot;flight simulators&quot; that mimic actual learning environments but don&#039;t let complexity overwhelm trainees. Managers can continue learning only if they get decision support tailored to the challenges they face. Firms would do well to focus more on training people higher up in the organization and stop leaving them to fend for themselves.&quot;
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s a highly relevant article in the February 08 Harvard Business Review. Description as follows:</p>
<p>&#8220;When companies put seasoned managers in charge of important projects, they don&#8217;t expect missed deadlines, budget overruns, and rampant defects. However, that&#8217;s what researchers found when they tested hundreds of experienced project managers with computer games that simulated software development projects. The study, conducted by two professors from Insead and one from Naval Postgraduate School, strongly suggests that veterans in complex environments suffer a breakdown in the learning process. The research reveals three reasons for the breakdowns: Time lags between causes and effects make it difficult to see how they&#8217;re connected; fallible estimates color the chain of decisions that determine a project&#8217;s outcome; and a bias toward the initial goals prevents managers from setting revised, more appropriate, targets when project circumstances change. Sticking to an initial low budget goal after a project grew in scope, for instance, led subjects to ignore quality assurance, which led to soaring defect rates&#8211;and costs. Companies can take practical steps to fix the learning cycle. They can provide feedback that shows the relationships between important variables in the environment. Such feedback might reveal, say, the 20-day ramp-up that a new quality assurance team needs before becoming fully effective. Tools that apply formal models to calculate such things as the effect of turnover on team productivity also help. Setting goals for behavior, instead of targets for performance, is critical as well. Finally, firms can create project &#8220;flight simulators&#8221; that mimic actual learning environments but don&#8217;t let complexity overwhelm trainees. Managers can continue learning only if they get decision support tailored to the challenges they face. Firms would do well to focus more on training people higher up in the organization and stop leaving them to fend for themselves.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: john mcgarr</title>
		<link>http://cultureby.com/2008/02/forecasting-and.html/comment-page-1#comment-2064</link>
		<dc:creator>john mcgarr</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 22:58:17 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>To me the failure of politicians is a very common one - the failure to understand that it is impossible to predict the reaction of the nation (or even a single person) to the live and ever evolving stimuli that gets put forth during such a campaign.  Its not a matter of forecasting or trendwatching; it is entirely about managing in the face of complexity, which can only be successfully done with a &quot;safe-fail&quot;, limited exposure approach of testing the way through the field of icebergs.  Since we can not possibly predict, we must stop trying to and finally allocate the appropriate resources to quickly, repeatedly and systematically test our way, use our ability to deal with hindsight and course correct quickly - and the protracted length of an American leadership and election campaign certainly allows enough time to make it happen.
It is the same for industry.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To me the failure of politicians is a very common one &#8211; the failure to understand that it is impossible to predict the reaction of the nation (or even a single person) to the live and ever evolving stimuli that gets put forth during such a campaign.  Its not a matter of forecasting or trendwatching; it is entirely about managing in the face of complexity, which can only be successfully done with a &#8220;safe-fail&#8221;, limited exposure approach of testing the way through the field of icebergs.  Since we can not possibly predict, we must stop trying to and finally allocate the appropriate resources to quickly, repeatedly and systematically test our way, use our ability to deal with hindsight and course correct quickly &#8211; and the protracted length of an American leadership and election campaign certainly allows enough time to make it happen.<br />
It is the same for industry.</p>
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		<title>By: dave.s.</title>
		<link>http://cultureby.com/2008/02/forecasting-and.html/comment-page-1#comment-2063</link>
		<dc:creator>dave.s.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 17:45:44 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I think Bill Clinton has not been the same since his heart operation.  He&#039;s a pump head, now, a shadow of what he was.  Still impressive, but no longer superman.  And she was relying on him to be right, on the politics, since he always has been before.  A mix of age and surgery, and yes, she got blindsided.
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think Bill Clinton has not been the same since his heart operation.  He&#8217;s a pump head, now, a shadow of what he was.  Still impressive, but no longer superman.  And she was relying on him to be right, on the politics, since he always has been before.  A mix of age and surgery, and yes, she got blindsided.</p>
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		<title>By: Carol Gee</title>
		<link>http://cultureby.com/2008/02/forecasting-and.html/comment-page-1#comment-2062</link>
		<dc:creator>Carol Gee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Feb 2008 06:47:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://localhost/wp_culture/?p=335#comment-2062</guid>
		<description>Good insightful post, Grant.  You put your finger on a couple of important points.  Erroneous assumptions can get the ambitious into trouble.  And ambitious politicians are vulnerable to &quot;extinction.&quot;  We/the nation has lost its skill in dealing with both celebrities and politicians.  We either do not hold them to enough account, excusing the unexcusable; or we cut them down without a blink.  I lay a tremendous amount of blame for this at the feet of an over-consolidated mainstream media, that is more interested in gossip and profits than journalism or investigation.
What would we do without the blogosphere to give us a bit of unvarnished reality?
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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good insightful post, Grant.  You put your finger on a couple of important points.  Erroneous assumptions can get the ambitious into trouble.  And ambitious politicians are vulnerable to &#8220;extinction.&#8221;  We/the nation has lost its skill in dealing with both celebrities and politicians.  We either do not hold them to enough account, excusing the unexcusable; or we cut them down without a blink.  I lay a tremendous amount of blame for this at the feet of an over-consolidated mainstream media, that is more interested in gossip and profits than journalism or investigation.<br />
What would we do without the blogosphere to give us a bit of unvarnished reality?</p>
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