Archive for October, 2005
“Flock and Flow” neither flocking nor flowing
Posted by: | CommentsThe poor copy editor! She took a look at the manuscript for my new book, Flock and Flow, and slashed it to ribbons with a sharp red pen. I returned parry and thrust as best I could, but finally I was obliged to call the executive editor and explain that a book that attempts to describe how trends work and how we, as marketers, may work with them, must be written in a manner that is a little liquid, nay, delirious. Write a Preface and explain yourself, he said. So, I did.
Preface
Trends come up like a squall. Brands must respond or capsize.
There are two ways to respond: short term adjustment or long term strategy.
This book takes the second approach. It asks, "how can we read trends better?" How can we proceed strategically? How do we this systematically?
Systems do not come to us "off the shelf." To build a trend system, we have to invent things and assemble them as we go. If you are looking for something elegant, you can stop right here. This book is experimental. It is sometimes inelegant and frequently wrong.
My defense: these are early days. New, intellectual appliances are always a little bit out of kilter. To make matters worse, I offer no warranty and the operating manual, as you are soon to discover, is sketchy in some places and sheer surmise in others. There will be moments when the ideas look odd, or the prose turns delirious. Please, if you would, bear with me. Better still, consider yourself a co-investigator. If you can see another way to solve the problem, send me an email (grant27@gmail.com) or drop by my web log (www.cultureby.com).
Also, consider this your "mixed metaphor advisory." In the manner of marketers everywhere, I will deploy metaphors as and when they occur to me with scant regard for whether and how they speak to one another. For this book, I am writing out of the "short, sharp, shock" school of rhetoric. It isn’t pretty. I’m hoping it’ll be effective.
Clearly, the problem of the explosive dynamism, the "perfect storm," of consumer taste and preferences isn’t going to go away. It is time for marketers to stop responding with ad hoc adjustment and get in the game long term.
end of preface
I will let you know if this does the trick.
Story time 11: ferreting and the new conditions of corporate knowledge
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A friend of mine in graduate school, Jimmie Weiner, used to joke that he wished that someone would steal his research and publish the results. "So I can find out what I have."
This is what we all want: someone to come in and find a forest in the trees. I’d be grateful if someone could figure out what my new book is about. It would make the writing go a lot faster.
Sometimes, this is what a client hires me to do. I am sent a batch of research studies, and it’s up to me to ferret my way through them.
Sometimes the client wants a comprehensive review, but more often s/he wants me to see if I can run through the data and analysis and return with a single good idea.
Mark Murray at JWT recently hired me to look at four research decks for a pharmaceutical company trying to crack a new market. Some of the decks were distressingly bad. There are people out there who are selling the corporation a bill of goods. But certain diplomacy rules apply. Mark and I hold our noses and I proceed.
If you are new to the data, and you move at pace, things leap into view. It is a little like my recent post on the Razr, where it seemed the faster a new product moves through the development cycle, the more likely it is to preserve what was smart, fresh and genuinely powerful about the original concept.
In this case, the faster we move, the more surely we discover the concepts that integrate good insights and winnow out bad ones. (Which is to say there are, really, no similarities between the two. Ok, they are, in fact, opposite. ‘Concept first’ versus ‘concept last.’ This moment of pattern recognition brought to you by the effects of blogging at 31,000.)
Anthropologists are trained in a particular kind of pattern recognition. They are obliged to think of a culture all at once because, according to the post Kantian idea here, a culture, given its druthers, orders all the world all at once.
Or, this is what anthropologists used to think before they cavalierly took "culture," the field’s most powerful notion and valuable asset, and bet it at the epistemology table. In a couple of rolls, they lost the whole thing, rendering themselves still less clueful, still more provincial, and now pretty much the poor cousins of the social sciences. (Oh, those French croupiers. Never trust them!) Fortunately, the culture concept was spirited away by other disciplines and certain anthropologists just in time.
As it turns out, my education at the University of Chicago, with its tough minded Boasian/Sahlinsian clarities, appears to have immunized me against the deepest stupidities penned by the post-modernist camp. This means, I say piously, that "patterns" are still prepared to reveal themselves to me…even as they hide like small forest animals whenever a postmodernist comes thundering by.
But, I don’t have to rely on my anthropological training alone. My stay at the Harvard Business School taught me something about "cracking the case." This is a wonderful thing to see. By the time someone graduates with an MBA, he or she has scrutinized around 500 cases. They are superbly good at spotting all but only the things that matter and driving their way to a recommendation. (And, of course, cases are deliberately filled with red herrings to tempt and confuse.)
And this is why the first Harvard MBA I saw in action stunned me with his speed and acuity. As I have said elsewhere in this blog, we were met at the Coca-Cola Company to solve a problem. Before we could settle in, Khalil Younes, then the most junior person in the room, told us exactly what the problem was and exactly what we should do about it. That’s pattern recognition.
Let me return to the failed comparison above. I think it is true that the Razr demonstrates that the faster things happen in the corporate world, the better they happen. And speed is the advantage in ferreting as well. The faster we go, the more surely we capture the more robust patterns. The faster we go, the more surely we find and solve the key problems.
The corporation has for a long time worked at improv speed. For some time, it has been as if we have been forced to breathe data in and conclusions out. And these days it feels as if things are speeding up, and sometimes we wonder whether the corporation can survive its hyper ventilation. Still, it could be that the pace at which we are being forced to act is actually the best pace at which to work in any case.
It’s as if the future is forcing to give up the inefficiencies of the committee, the bloody mindedness of the time servers and the numb skulls, the stultification of Murphy’s law(yers), and finally become the economic, corporate actor(s) we should have become in the first place. It is as if a dynamic world releases us from our worst inclinations and pushes us into what is everyone’s favorite state of thinking, deciding and doing: something that moves at speed, engages our real gifts, and plays out our real joys. It is as if we are, to steal a phrase from Rousseau, now "forced to be free." (And so we must be conclude that the worst of all possible worlds is really the best of all possible worlds. I am Voltaire’s Dr. Pangloss, at your service.)
Naturally, there are necessary conditions, without which the press of dynamism makes the world a chaos, a torment, a veritable New Orleans. The corporation must equip itself with people who are fewer, more powerful, smart, well trained, capable of intellectual improv and playing well with others, and who are given very fast execution, almost instantaneous feed back, and the chance to iterate often. That’s not so much to ask, is it?
branding cultures at MIT: mapping intiatives
Posted by: | CommentsThe MIT brand cultures laboratory is beginning to take shape. This is the brain child of Henry Jenkins and an enterprise I am honored to be part of.
The officer in charge of research initiatives, Alec Austin, wrote to ask me about research topics and I penned him this reply.
Dear Alec,
Thanks for the note, and the list of topics.
My interests are various and most of them are best pursued with a combination of industry numbers and ethnography, a sort of "Malinowski meets the Harvard case study method".
As to topics, there are, thanks to the embargo that intellectuals have imposed on popular culture as a legitimate topic of study, now hundreds of possibilities begging for scrutiny. I hardly know where to start.
Here’s one possibility. There are lots of others.
I have the distinct sense that we don’t know nearly enough about the cultural producers, especially in the film, music and magazines biz (bizes?). For instance, it would be interesting to build a statistical picture of Hollywood that begins with a calculation of "how many people think about becoming an actor" and runs all the way up to the "magic circle of 8 big stars," with all the nesting circles in between ( e.g., people who get as far as their SAG card but not much further). Finally, this would look like a hierarchy with, say, 8 to 10 worlds.(FN1)
Then we would add to this a "snakes and ladders" portrait of the fast tracks and the slippery slopes that take people suddenly up and down the hierarchy. (Sorry, I think Americans call this game "Chutes and Ladders." This is the last vestige of my Canadian upbringing.) Clearly, this is changing fast. For a movie aspirant, TV used to be one a reliable chute. These days, it’s actually a ladder. The new media will create a new recruiting system.
Until we have this picture, we can’t really answer the question, "how many are called, how many chosen?" Nor can we calculate how big a risk a would be actor is taking. We need maps of this kind for directors, producers, agents and so on. I know it sounds onerous but someone would have to go to Hollywood and start talking to people there. I am guessing agents might have the best sense of how to construct the actor map. (I think breaking into SAG headquarters might be called for. I wrote them once for numbers and was absolutely stonewalled. Clearly, the map we are talking about here would be very bad for SAG business.)
Once this map is in place, it would be interesting to do ethnographic interviews with the people who occupy these worlds, this ziggarat. I believe it’s probably true that any given actor has an imperfect, perhaps utterly mistaken, impression of the world in which he/she lives. Likely, the actors’ notion of the map underestimates the risk and so overestimates the likelihood of stardom. The thing here is to get into, and then past, the "just so" stories that aspirants use to sustain their optimism ( e.g., "You know, George Clooney waited for x years to get his first movie part and now look at him.") There are lots of things to think about here. One of them is the aspirant’s multiple selves. ‘I know I look like a waiter, but I am in fact the next Brad Pitt." It is a strange, slippery world, but I think it resembles the world of the civilian (non movie aspirant) more and more.
Normally, the producer world and the consumer world of Hollywood are separated by a silver screen. We see the actor, not the person. But there are moments when Hollywood actually makes movies about Hollywood, even when the portrait is unflattering. "Swimming with sharks," is one case in point, but of course there are plenty of others. (Altman’s The Player.) This sort of thing must filter into the aspirants’ understanding of the industry. So much of our understanding of the contemporary world is mediated by the movies, it’s inevitable that this should be true of the players’ understanding of their industry.
Finally, I am not sure this is properly designed, but something like it needs to be done for marketing, advertising, publishing, magazines, and the other cultural producers. One very last point: one of the things that I like about this topic is that it is the kind of thing that would interest a broad public, and written in an accessible way, it would give the student who undertakes it an extra-academic audience for his/her work. It should also, and this is one test of whether anthropology is well done, serve the aspirant as a useful indication of their best strategies for risk management.
Anyhow, thought I would through this on the table. Just for the record I am interested in ethnographic work with any cultural producers or consumers, but I am distinctly not interested in projects that spring from and never escape the postmodernist and "critical" banalities that govern so much work in the current social sciences. As you can see from this research vista, I believe that comprehensive, integrative models are still possible, that this culture, for all its richness, dynamism, and multiplicity, is still a culture. (It is, I believe, Rousseau’s self dramatizing conceit to think otherwise. Actually, this is the nicest thing we can say here.)
Best, Grant
Footnote 1 (FN1)
I have naively posited one world, when in fact there are many more: indie (Sundance level), indie (SxSW level), indie (someone’s basement level) and then there are the various porno demi-mondes into which some actors descend while waiting for their "break" or because they have missed it. (Notice my Victorian assumptions here. Perhaps the "adult entertainment" industry is more properly thought of as a parallel universe, not a subordinate one. Who knows.) These various pieces of the industry are sometimes interconnecting (as feeder systems, as new chutes and new ladders, etc) and sometimes they exist sui generis. And this last is really interesting. Now we have cultural production happening utterly untouched by the gravitation field and various inducements (and punishments) created by the Hollywood mainstream. Every so often one of these enterprises (an actor/director therefrom) comes to Hollywood, as if a message from "deep space," and things in the mainstream change dramatically.
Brands behaving badly: Microsoft save yourself
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My Microsoft migration continues. As readers of this blog know, I dumped Outlook for an online calendar, Explorer for Mozilla, Outlook for gmail and now it looks as if I just dumped Word for a Web 2.0 appliance called Writely. That leaves just Powerpoint and Exel, and I’m done. (Yes, I know there are alternatives here too.)
The key thing: how risk averse and technologically unsophisticated I am as a consumer. If someone like me is preparing to walk away from my Microsoft suite…well, it may be time to share your shares. I did.
All marketers treat themselves as a window on the consumers’ soul. They know, or ought to know, their tolerances, and this allows them to use themselves as indicators of what is going on in the hearts and minds of millions of other consumers.
Here’s how it breaks down:
I am prepared to walk away from the brand that has been, for several decades now, my friend in need. In the early days, Microsoft seemed liked the safe bet, the necessary companion for a computer novice. Now I am prepared to go to a number of suppliers, some of them brands and companies I have never heard of. Consumers grow up and they leave the brand as surely as kids grow up and leave home.
I am also prepared to allow me software to sit on the internet. This is something I thought I would never permit. I thought I needed to control the means of production. Gmail cured me of that.
There is a small downside here. If I have my hotel info stored in Gmail, and I am checking in, it’s hard to get at. But even this naive consumer can see that internet access will shortly be completely ubiguitous and always on. I can also see that it’s going to be free. (As we all know, Google is going to give away wireless to the city of SF and, as we can guess, the city will embrace them for it. It is a way of giving wireless access to those with low or no incomes.)
You’ll notice that I haven’t said anything about dumping Windows but I noticed that this morning that Dell will release a computer with no operating system installed. Twelve months ago, I would have said, "weird." Now, I think, "yeah, that’s a good idea."
The installed base that Windows and Office give Microsoft an advantage every marketer dreams of. The conventional notion is that the brand is maximally sticky, the consumer substantially captive, the competition simply locked out.
But it may be that we now live in a market so dynamic that even this advantage, apparently as insurmountable as Hadrian’s wall once was, might someday crumble. Branders and other marketers will come across it in old copies of the business press years and years from now. "Microsoft?" someone will ask. "Sure," comes the reply, "they were right up there with Wang. You know, in the early days."
But here’s what’s really strange. With the world now slippery with new challenges, Microsoft continues to manage its branding as if this were not the most urgent order of business at its disposal. With everything else going to hell in a handbasket, surely it makes sense to secure the enterprise by rebranding the company. Surely, it’s time to wrestle the company away from the scrappy, argumentative, contrary spirit of Gates and the great legion of clones he has installed in the corporation. Start again.
No, not "kinder and gentler." Just someone or something that expresses the best qualities of the world of thinking machines, virtual realities, and streaming signals: curiousity, generosity, playfulness, vitality. Geez, we may not have a "singularity" to look forward to, but grumpy, what’s-in-it-for-us small mindedness is not the stuff out of which great brands ever come.
Microsoft is losing altitude at speed. Branding is one of the things they can do right now. Sure, their problems are wired into the corporate culture. So what we have now is a certain truth in packaging. Microsoft the brand is transperantly Microsoft the people.
Put it this way. The brand can speak in both directions, inside and out. If Microsoft create a brand that speaks of curiousity, generosity, playfulness, vitality and if it then license sthese qualities inside the corporation, real transformation is possible. Perhaps it will take courage and imagination from the fact that they are no longer playing an incumbent position. If the gridiron has taught us anything, it is that playing "safe" is usually a losing proposition.
idea exchange at 31,000 feet (and the death of the perfect stranger)
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Maybe its just the anthropologist in me, but I am often beset by the sensation that I am surrounded by people who would be interesting to talk to.
Now I can. Airtroductions.com is a new service that allows me to discover who is sharing my flight to LA and to arrange, by mutual agreement, to sit together.
What a great idea. People here in Connecticut are dead set against exchange of most kinds. Products, no. Ideas, Lord no. Capital, ok. So my opportunity to meet and chat with new people, to do the anthropology of everyday life, is limited to airports and the places they take me.
I always strike up conversations with the person next me, and the results are often wonderful. Coming back from San Antonio, I found myself sitting beside a University administrator who writes historical romances and a guy who was just coming to New York to run an ad agency. I mean, really, you can’t hope to do better than that.
But often the pickings are not so good, as when you get stuck by someone who is stupid and noisy about it. On the way out, I resorted to my laptop and to my astonishment, the person to be just kept talking. I thought getting out your computer was a universal lingo for "fuck off and leave me alone." Apparently not.
Then I got to thinking: this is an exchange waiting to happen. I mean, we could make this an exchange system dominated by the free gift. If I’ve got something useful to tell you, I give it to you, consulting for free. But we could earn and store value with Airtroductions and spend this value to get to certain conversations we most want.
Naturally, it won’t be long before hotels start up systems of this kind. Often, we just want to eat in our hotel rooms but sometimes a free evening is a great opportunity to make contact with someone sensationally interesting and useful. And there is a better than average chance that in a large (& especially a grand) hotel, there is someone we would find sensationally interesting and useful. (You can see that this is where the exchange might come in here.)
The society of strangers is one of the signatures of industrial society and one of the pleasures of modernism. We don’t know who they are. We don’t want to know who they are. Those strangers are merely so many walk-ons for the drama of our own lives. (What, for instance, would Paris be without them? And so well casted!)
Only some of us belong to networks that constantly introduce us to really interesting people (and more networks). Which is to say, that the new technologies must help us make contact more efficiently than before. And anything’s better than, "are you going to eat that dessert, or could I have it?"
Marketers: rounded or sharpened?
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When Eric was 5, he taught himself the periodic table. He already knew the alphabet. Then he started to wonder whether the alphabet and the periodic table might somehow spring from the same thing.
I heard about Eric at the Association for Consumer Research meetings over the weekend in San Antonio. His Dad and I went to dinner, thanks to John Deighton’s introduction. His Dad has looked at the difference between round and sharp numbers in the area of pricing.
Round prices ($10.00) are the work of, um, rounding. We don’t suppose that a new product comes out at $10.00. Someone rounded to make things simpler. Consumers read and react to round prices in a variety of ways, some predictable, some not.
Sharp prices ($18.37) are "real(er)" numbers. We suppose they represent a more faithful reckoning of the accidents of production or profit calculation.
Forget pricing, all marketing used to round. Products, brands, communications, were all simplified to make things easier. This was an important part of marketing’s "value add." This meant that entire decades were rounded. I give you the 1950s. This meant that there could be only one, unique selling proposition. This meant keeping it simple (stupid) and repeating ourselves endlessly.
Now we’re all, as consumers, a little more like Eric. We have better pattern detection skills and we find brands and communications that are rounded a little tedious. We want commercial creations that resist interpretation…at least at first. When it comes to new products, innovations, and ads, we want manageable difficulty. We want to find the patterns, not have them imposed upon us.
The early Disneyland was a rounded experience. Other cultures were survived up in a simplified, easy-to-think, format. Now we prefer to go some place that is still sharp, unmediated by the tourist industry, not served up for touristic consumption. Which is to say, we want pattern detection, some of it, to be left to us. We want a little noise in the system, a little grist for the mill.
Rounded marketing versus sharpened marketing, this is the difference between
Sony versus Apple
McDonald’s versus Burger King
Microsoft versus Google
Kroger versus Whole Foods,
Whole Foods versus Central Market,
Wal-Mart versus Target,
Chrysler versus General Motors,
Wayne Newton versus Circe du Soleil
a one-hour TV program versus an hour of "surfed TV"
Naturally, we consumers are never going to be entirely like Eric. (When I was 5, my parents were getting my hearing checked in the hopes that this might the reason I was so out of it.) We are never going to be so fiercely pattern seeking that we can manage utter and constant noise. But clearly we’ve got better, and, just as clearly, this means that rounded marketing is dead.
And this means that we must all be, as marketers, a little more like Eric. We need to be looking for pattern matchs in new places. We must be a little more ambitious in the problem solving. We must be prepared to reinvent the terms of reference. We can do this like the English, one problem at a time. Or, we can do like the French, with grand new declarations of the new face of marketing. (I must tell you that I heard distressing little of either approach at the ACR San Antonio meetings. We seemed to be acting as if the world of marketing were pretty much business as usual. But academics, they are typically the last to know.)


