HugoAt the break from David Isenberg, I learned of this wonderful line from Roy Amara (phrasing approximate).

we tend to overestimate the effects of an innovation in its early days and to underestimate its effects in the longer term.

On other matters:

I have gone to electronically drafty conferences before, but this is astonishing. We’ve got people talking at the front of the organization, behind them on the screen that shows chat comment on the talk being given, I am looking at the Corante homepage that shows the several links that bear on the proceedings, and I just went to blog of Marc Cenedella to see his comment on the last paper. I left a comment, or at least tried to. It’s all a little dizzying.

3 thoughts on “

  1. Grant

    Good spot on the Hugo pic. I had clipped it for other purposes but it seemed to me to capture a man who believes his head is about to explode. (C’est moi.)

  2. Peter

    On underestimating the consequences of innovations: I have seen it claimed that the sexual revolution is really due to the Penny Post: universal postal services allowed unmarried women to communicate with unmarried men without being overheard by parents or chaperones.

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